Friday, 11 March 2016
First Forecast for the New Year: 2016Q1
Well I just got around to updating and doing the forecast for 2016Q1. In terms of the 2015Q4 forecast, I was the most pessimistic of the lot (-.3) and CIBC turned in to be the winner and the exact growth of 0.8%. This quarter I am pleased to say I am the most optimistic of the Banks (along with RBC) at a growth of 2.2% (annualized as always) with Scotia at 1.3% I incorporated in this forecast the real exports for Jan 2016. As the quarter unfolds and the monthly real GDP are released, it will be interesting to see if this "high" growth continues. Just to put the forecast into perspective the average real growth over the since 1997 has been 2.4%. In terms of future blogs I want to discuss revised data in general and the that was done last year for the entire series of GDP from 1981
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Any chance you will discuss, breakpoint unit roots? I use EViews (I see you use Stata) and the choices related to using the breakpoint unit root tests do not seem to be well described either in the EViews manual or from internet sources. Also, once a breakpoint unit root analysis is done and the data series is determined to not have a unit root due to trend or other reason, how is this information used to develop a forecast, either, univaritate, cointegrated or ARDL?
The first thing many people do is attempt to accomplish all of their resolutions at once. Given the tendency for people to make several, the odds of adhering to all of them is pretty slim. Your best bet is to tackle them one at a time. If your list includes lose weight and quit smoking, trying to do both at once cold turkey will make you go insane. Your best bet is to start with the most important one, and once you establish a routine you feel you can follow, start working on the next one. For example, you can start the new year off by gradually changing your diet and exercising a little more, while at the same time cutting back on the number of cigarettes you smoke. The nicotine withdrawal won't be so bad, and once the weight starts to come off and you've entered into a rhythm, you can cut back on smoking even more until you're down to a cigarette every couple of days. By this time your first resolution has become routine, and quitting smoking can become your primary thought. newyearReplyDelete