On this first business day of 2016 and where the market kind of tanked worldwide, I thought I should bring in the latest forecasts for 2015Q4. They are not very hopeful but those folks who do longer run forecasts tell us 2016 will be better. We will see. This graph is reproduced in my header but is also below. My own Canadian real GDP growth forecast at this point is -0.85%. The high is Scotiabank with a slim 1.6% growth (all annual rates). The rest fit in between.
In the coming weeks I will let you folks know the current model I am using (involves incorporating monthly real GDP as they become available).
In the next blog, I want to discuss what to forecast. Why growth? Why not deviations of trend or some other construct. Until then thanks for dropping by! And now the promised graph
I've marked my tracking estimate down to -0.5 for the fourth quarter. Even that assumes an average of 0.2 per cent monthly GDP growth in November and December.
ReplyDeleteO/T: Sorry for the O/T question Allan, but I'm wondering if you're aware of any forecasters out there who made a forecast of what the effective federal funds rate (in the US) would have been after the Fed raised the rate. I'm wondering if there are any forecasts to compare against this forecaster's forecast.
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