Just a short blog today to give the first results of my forecasting project. I predicted a 2.8% real GDP growth at annual rates and the actual was 2.3%. RBC, Scotia and TD all had 2.5% and were the closest among the Bank forecasts. Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary) tossed out a 1.4% last night and claimed a victory over me under the Price Is Right Rules (cannot go over). Stephen Gordon (Laval) was spot on with 2.3% done yesterday morning. Of course if you just had used the unconditional estimate (the sample mean) of 2.4% you would also have been a star!
In general, I think the forecasts all were reasonably close. The surprising thing in my view today was the monthly release of the September number of -1.98% at annual rates for September 2015. This was not great and certainly dampened the quarterly number.
Just to get the ball rolling for 2015Q4, my initial forecast is -0.5%. Let the next recession talk begin.
Dec 2: Did anyone else notice that the entire history or real GDP growth at 2007 prices has been changed from 1981Q1 onward . Not big changes but if you are in the forecasting business make them!
See http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/nea/dates/index#niea
| Release date | Reference period |
|---|---|
| March 3, 2015 | First quarter 2014 to fourth quarter 2014 |
| May 29, 2015 | First quarter 2014 to first quarter 2015 |
| September 1, 2015 | First quarter 2015 to second quarter 2015 |
| December 1, 2015 | First quarter 1981 to third quarter 2015 |
| March 1, 2016 | First quarter 2015 to fourth quarter 2015 |
| May 31, 2016 | First quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016 |
| August 31, 2016 | First quarter 2016 to second quarter 2016 |
| November 30, 2016 | First quarter 2016 to third quarter 2016 |
| March 2, 2017 | First quarter 2016 to fourth quarter 2016 |
| Release date | Refer |
|---|
I'm at 1.2 per for the 4th quarter - Brendon Ogmundson (BCREA)
ReplyDeletere-ran my nowcast with most recent trade and employment data - 4th quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.4%
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