Just a short blog today to give the first results of my forecasting project. I predicted a 2.8% real GDP growth at annual rates and the actual was 2.3%. RBC, Scotia and TD all had 2.5% and were the closest among the Bank forecasts. Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary) tossed out a 1.4% last night and claimed a victory over me under the Price Is Right Rules (cannot go over). Stephen Gordon (Laval) was spot on with 2.3% done yesterday morning. Of course if you just had used the unconditional estimate (the sample mean) of 2.4% you would also have been a star!
In general, I think the forecasts all were reasonably close. The surprising thing in my view today was the monthly release of the September number of -1.98% at annual rates for September 2015. This was not great and certainly dampened the quarterly number.
Just to get the ball rolling for 2015Q4, my initial forecast is -0.5%. Let the next recession talk begin.
Dec 2: Did anyone else notice that the entire history or real GDP growth at 2007 prices has been changed from 1981Q1 onward . Not big changes but if you are in the forecasting business make them!
|Release date||Reference period|
|March 3, 2015||First quarter 2014 to fourth quarter 2014|
|May 29, 2015||First quarter 2014 to first quarter 2015|
|September 1, 2015||First quarter 2015 to second quarter 2015|
|December 1, 2015||First quarter 1981 to third quarter 2015|
|March 1, 2016||First quarter 2015 to fourth quarter 2015|
|May 31, 2016||First quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016|
|August 31, 2016||First quarter 2016 to second quarter 2016|
|November 30, 2016||First quarter 2016 to third quarter 2016|
|March 2, 2017||First quarter 2016 to fourth quarter 2016|
I'm at 1.2 per for the 4th quarter - Brendon Ogmundson (BCREA)ReplyDelete
re-ran my nowcast with most recent trade and employment data - 4th quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.4%Delete