tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post7790659666724748671..comments2023-10-11T02:48:50.038-07:00Comments on Allan W. Gregory's Blog: Allan W. Gregoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08402483997352614946noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-16977444357169480852015-11-30T11:36:58.176-08:002015-11-30T11:36:58.176-08:00Even if Jason is not able to participate, I'll...Even if Jason is not able to participate, I'll be curious to see how this challenge goes.<br /><br />Also, I love the title of your blog! Very straightforward! Lol. I called my first blog "Tom Brown's Blog" ... so I can see where you're coming from. (I've since changed the name... but not because I didn't like the old title... only because I opened it up to other authors... I "handed the keys to someone else" so to speak).Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-89129979144834266002015-11-30T11:26:00.928-08:002015-11-30T11:26:00.928-08:00Thanks for the reply Allan. I wasn't asking on...Thanks for the reply Allan. I wasn't asking on my own behalf, but on behalf of an amateur macro blogger (Jason Smith) I'm familiar with who has developed a set of mathematical models he uses to make forecasts about several different countries around the world (including Canada). His models (like you say) are usable by anyone, and he will share the source code for them. He writes about the mathematical expressions defining the models in his blog posts. The framework from which his models are derived is not mainstream, but IMO it's well thought out (he's a physicist and is familiar with theoretical frameworks), and <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.02435" rel="nofollow">documented</a>. A year and a half ago he put forward <a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-challenge-to-macroeconomists.html" rel="nofollow">a challenge to professional macro economists</a> to put their models up against his, but no one took him up on it. Instead he's been comparing his performance in the US against <a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/ny-fed-dsge-model-predictions-are-not.html" rel="nofollow">a couple of Fed models</a>. I'm very curious to see how he would have done against professional macro modelers, so I did my part to make the macro bloggers I read aware of his challenge. When I saw your blog here I thought it might be a good fit. Here are a few posts with Canada specific forecasts or analysis he's made (note the dates: they're not necessarily in order):<br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/07/worthwhile-canadian-prediction.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/07/worthwhile-canadian-prediction.html</a><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/01/worthwhile-canadian-interest-rate.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/01/worthwhile-canadian-interest-rate.html</a><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/celebrating-500-posts-with-predictive.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/06/celebrating-500-posts-with-predictive.html</a><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/09/does-canada-know-about-information.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/09/does-canada-know-about-information.html</a><br /><a href="http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/09/canadas-new-recession.html" rel="nofollow">http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2015/09/canadas-new-recession.html</a><br /><br />Here's a whole set that mention Canada:<br /><a href="https://www.google.com/search?safe=off&site=&source=hp&q=site%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Finformationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com+Canada&oq=site%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Finformationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com+Canada&gs_l=hp.3...2125.18811.0.19642.114.46.1.0.0.0.214.3167.22j6j1.29.0....0...1c.1.64.hp..113.1.178.0.XK2JqUcfKRg" rel="nofollow">https://www.google.com/search?safe=off&site=&source=hp&q=site%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Finformationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com+Canada&oq=site%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Finformationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com+Canada&gs_l=hp.3...2125.18811.0.19642.114.46.1.0.0.0.214.3167.22j6j1.29.0....0...1c.1.64.hp..113.1.178.0.XK2JqUcfKRg</a><br /><br />I love the idea of this challenge Allan! I hope you get a good response, and I hope that Jason is able to participate in some way since I've been following his approach for years now. I read about your blog on Dave Giles' blog.<br /><br />All the best!<br />TomTom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-67721674350087105522015-11-27T04:41:35.191-08:002015-11-27T04:41:35.191-08:00Hi
Anyone can make forecasts. Free entry! Mathemat...Hi<br />Anyone can make forecasts. Free entry! Mathematical models are replicable by anyone. Hunches and guesses are person specific<br />Thanks for this<br />AllanAllan W. Gregoryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08402483997352614946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-37287625567926077362015-11-26T11:06:58.659-08:002015-11-26T11:06:58.659-08:00Do you have to be a "professional Canadian f...Do you have to be a "professional Canadian forecaster" to participate in this challenge? Or can you be an amateur with mathematical models that make forecasts about economic variables in Canada?Tom Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17654184190478330946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-59302878468432639312015-10-25T21:43:47.381-07:002015-10-25T21:43:47.381-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.subbaraohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00100304291028834992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-64472803074333039882015-10-19T10:58:57.962-07:002015-10-19T10:58:57.962-07:00I'm interested to see where you go with this. ...I'm interested to see where you go with this. I hope you will add the MPR when it comes out this week.Kailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18077588475487129146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-2435564516768053412015-10-17T20:07:45.716-07:002015-10-17T20:07:45.716-07:00This is great, Allan. The only change I would like...This is great, Allan. The only change I would like to see are value labels on the x axis. Looking forward to learning more. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06082360152269115587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4825359304796345707.post-68053878946351998372015-10-16T15:20:15.941-07:002015-10-16T15:20:15.941-07:00What a great idea! I currently contribute a US for...What a great idea! I currently contribute a US forecast to the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters and I'd be happy to contribute my Canadian forecast to this project as well. <br /><br />- Brendon Ogmundson, BCREAAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16706891004848927451noreply@blogger.com